The One about what will happen to the Heisei Chikuho Railway due to declining passengers?

The One about what will happen to the Heisei Chikuho Railway due to declining passengers?

300 series DMU car 304 in March 2008 by Atsasebo (Source: Wikipedia)

The Heisei Chikuho Railway in Fukuoka Prefecture continues to struggle, with a majority of the municipalities that fund it supporting a bus service. However, there are challenges to switching to a bus service, and the decision of the statutory council, scheduled to reach a decision by the end of March, is attracting attention.

The Heisei Chikuho Railway, which connects Nogata, Tagawa, and Yukuhashi in Fukuoka Prefecture, boasts 3.42 million passengers per year in 1992, but has now fallen to about one-third of its peak.

The railway has been running at a loss year after year, and if it continues to operate, it is estimated to incur a deficit of approximately 1 billion yen per year, putting its very existence at risk. A woman in her 80s said, “It would be a problem (if it were to disappear). I have no transportation. I can’t drive.” A man in his 40s said, “I’m on my way to work. It would be inconvenient (if it were to disappear).”

The statutory council, established at the request of municipalities along the line, which are also investors, has presented three proposals for the line’s future.

1. “Upper and lower level separation,” in which the railway is maintained and the local government is responsible for facility management, etc.

2. “BRT (Bus Rapid Transit),” in which buses run on dedicated roads along the railway tracks.

3. “Route buses” that use public roads. Tagawa City supports the BRT (Bus Rapid Transit) system.

Tagawa City’s Urban Planning Division Chief, Omori Toshihiro said, “We are proposing the BRT bus rapid transit system.”

Tagawa City, which provides the most subsidies among the municipalities along the line, announced its support for BRT on March 9th. Tagawa City will provide over 100 million yen in subsidies to Heisei Chikuho Railway in fiscal year 2024. The reason cited for the BRT system is that the section of dedicated road that would need to be developed is shorter than other municipalities along the line, meaning Tagawa City would have the lowest deficit burden over the next 30 years.

Mayor Murakami Takuya of Tagawa City said, “While we understand the importance of railways and want to preserve them, the main reason (for choosing BRT) was the financial burden.”

While five municipalities supported route buses, five, including Yukuhashi City, supported route buses. The main reason is that the burden on each municipality would be lower than BRT in terms of the deficit over the next 30 years.

Mayor Kudo Masahiro of Yukuhashi City said, “When considered comprehensively, the (financial) burden is already large, and it’s relatively easy to imagine it getting even larger, so sustainability should be the priority. We need to ensure a permanent means of transportation. When considering this, we decided that buses were the most realistic option.” Of the nine municipalities along the line, five (a majority) support route buses, but there are high hurdles to overcome. Regarding local railroads that have considered converting to route buses…

RKB reporter Iwamoto Taishi : “Some local railroads have previously considered converting to route buses but have given up.”

Matsuura Railway, a third-sector railroad that connects Imari City and Arita Town in Saga Prefecture and Sasebo City in Nagasaki Prefecture, is one example. Like Heisei Chikuho Railway, declining passenger numbers have led to financial difficulties, and a proposal has been made to convert some sections to route buses.

However,Yoshinaga Masato , head of the Sasebo City Regional Transportation Division, stated, “The bus industry’s driver shortage makes conversion impossible. The decision was made that this would be difficult.” In August 2025, a liaison council made up of municipalities along the line was unable to recruit the necessary 13 drivers, and the conversion to route buses was postponed.

Matsuura Railway is estimated to incur a cumulative deficit of 1.3 billion yen over the next 10 years, but it is unable to even partially convert to buses, and will continue to operate at a loss.

Imazato Haruki, president of Matsuura Railway, said, “From the beginning, I thought converting to buses would be difficult. I knew we had a shortage of drivers. People, materials, and money are all difficult. Although it’s difficult, we are passionate about our mission, and we will continue to support the local community.” Securing drivers is a hurdle to converting to route buses. It is estimated that Heisei Chikuho Railway will need to secure 44 drivers to convert to route buses by March. Even if a majority of local governments along the line support the bus route proposal, securing drivers could become a hurdle, as happened with Matsuura Railway.

However, Heisei Chikuho Railway, which has a deficit one order of magnitude larger than Matsuura Railway, cannot afford to continue as is.

Kawai Kenichi, president of Heisei Chikuho Railway, said, “In terms of revenue, we are experiencing a declining population, and I believe expenses will likely continue to rise in the future. The longer we go, the more difficult it will be to manage. We look forward to the council’s decision.”

The statutory council is comprised of 27 members, including local governments along the line, the national government, Fukuoka Prefecture, experts, and railway and bus operators Nishitetsu and JR Kyushu. The council is scheduled to reach a decision by the end of March, with the 27 members deciding to adopt the proposal that receives the majority support of the three proposals in a written resolution.