I have watched and also read news of various tour groups canceling their trips and people who were planning to travel overseas, canceling their trips due to the coronavirus (2019-nCov).
As a traveler, I don’t blame people for canceling.
As much as I want to tell travelers to not listen to the hype, to travel and enjoy their trip, the sad news is that this is just the beginning. But it’s very important for travelers to practice the best hygiene and do whatever they can, such as wearing a mask and not being so close to people who are sick.
We are still learning more about the virus, researchers in Australia have cultivated the virus and are sharing information worldwide in order to create a vaccine and like everyone around the world, travelers are learning about information (May it be misinformation or fact, that the spread of the coronavirus is much higher than what is being reported) before making a decision of whether to travel or not to travel.
Some who are traveling because they already paid great money into their trips and there are no refunds. Others willing to take the risk of traveling and those who decided to take the loss and not risk their lives.
Here is what we know right now:
- Those who have tested positive are primarily travelers from the Wuhan region of China, the epicenter of the outbreak.
- WHO has not declared a global health emergency as it did with SARS and warned people not to travel to Hong Kong but later withdrew the advisory.
- The majority of the cases are not fatal and as of Tuesday, the mortality rate is 2.3%
- That the spread of the virus may have been caused from people who ate wild game meat that was purchased at a Wuhan market. The virus is zoonotic, started in animals before jumping to humans and it is thought that it was started from bats (UPDATE: February 8, 2020 – Researchers believe the pangolin is the source of nCoV-2019 on the basis of genetic comparison of coronaviruses taken from the animals and from humans infected).
- As of now, 7,700 people are infected in China, dozens in other countries. (UPDATE: February 8, 2020 – The number of infections have rises to 37,198 and the death toll has risen to 811, surpassing the SARS death toll)
- The Japanese government has confirmed that a Japanese tour bus driver who has never been to Wuhan, tested positive for the coronavirus. This is the first time a Japanese national was confirmed to have the virus. The driver drove two groups of Chinese tourists from Wuhan around Tokyo on January 8-11 and January 12-16. On January 14th, he showed symptoms of the virus including coughing and joint pain. On January 17th, he went to a medical facility and no abnormalities were detected. On January 25th, he was hospitalized as his symptoms have worsened and is now recuperating. On January 27th, the Chinese government implemented a ban on group tours to foreign countries to help stop the spread of the coronavirus.
- Many countries have already had people who have tested positive for coronavirus. Once again, many of these people are from the Wuhan region.
- We know that many people from Wuhan arenow not permitted to leave. Countries are asking people to leave and some are able to, others aren’t. Primarily because all transportation is closed and their is a lockdown in the city.
- Many people from the Wuhan region were able to travel for the Chinese New Year before the January 27th ban. Chinese New Year is still ongoing and ends on February 5th. It is estimated that 5 million people left Wuhan before Chinese authorities imposed a transportation lockdown.
- Based on Chinese IT companies, Chinese news organizations are assuming 60 to 70% of people who left Wuhan between January 10-22 headed to Henan, Hunan, Anhiuo and Jiangxi provinces as well as the city of Chongqing. Around 60,000 people flew to Beijing between December 30th and January 22nd.
- For international travel, it is assumed the largest number of people who left China are presumed to have flown to Suvarnabhumi Airport in Thailand, Singapore’s Changi Airport and Narita International Airport in Chiba, Japan. Approximately 9,000 people from Wuhan are believed to have flow to Narita.
- It is not yet known how the coronavirus is transmitted? Is it droplets? Physical contact from saliva, diarrhea, oral consumption, aerosols?
- The incubation period for the Wuhan coronavirus is 14 days, while the influenza is two days.
As of Thursday, the infections have been reported via AP:
— China: 7,711 cases on the mainland. In addition, Hong Kong has eight cases and Macao has five. Nearly all of the 170 deaths have been in central Hubei province, where illnesses from the new type of coronavirus were first detected in December.
— Thailand: 14
— Japan: 11
— Singapore: 10
— Taiwan: 8
— Malaysia: 8
— Australia: 7
— South Korea: 6
— France: 5
— Vietnam: 5
— United States: 5.
— Germany: 4
— Canada: 3
— United Arab Emirates: 4
— India: 1
— Philippines: 1
— Finland: 1
— Nepal: 1
— Cambodia: 1
— Sri Lanka: 1
Can one catch it in an airplane or on the train/subway?
From an article on nationalgeographic.com: When an infected person coughs or sneezes, they shed droplets of saliva, mucus, or other bodily fluids. If any of those droplets fall on you—or if you touch them and then, say, touch your face—you can become infected as well.
These droplets are not affected by air flowing through a space, but instead fall fairly close to where they originate. According to Emily Landon, medical director of antimicrobial stewardship and infection control at the University of Chicago Medicine, the hospital’s guidelines for influenza define exposure as being within six feet of an infected person for 10 minutes or longer.
On airplanes: The World Health Organization defines contact with an infected person as being seated within two rows of one another.
Why the worry?
Because we do not know much about the virus, we also don’t have a vaccine. The latest report as of January 28th was China now has 6000 people infected and over a hundred people were killed.
But are those numbers accurate or much higher?
Back in 1918, the 1918 influenza pandemic involving the H1N1 influenza virus infected 500 million people worldwide. The death toll is around 50-100 million. Many countries (which include the US, the UK, Germany, France, etc.) minimized reports of the illness in their countries and reported only what was happening in Spain, so people thought Spain was the country primarily hit and thus the pandemic was called the “Spanish flu”.
News reports from today about a woman who is a nurse in Wuhan had made a video saying that conditions are much worse than what was being reported in the media and that 90,000 people are infected.
What to do?
At this time, there is no vaccine. The CDC recommends washing your hands with regular soap or using an alcohol-based hand sanitizer after touching any surface. There is evidence that coronaviruses last longer on surfaces than other illnesses, around three to 12 hours.
You should also avoid touching your face and contact with coughing passengers by whatever means possible. If you have to sneeze, sneeze into your elbow.
If traveling, I would recommend wearing a mask. It’s not perfect but it’s a preventative that may help.
Should I travel?
I feel traveling is fine, especially if you are traveling areas that are not tourist heavy. But most people visit countries and areas that tend to be tourist heavy.
So, if you are planning to travel. For one, get your flu shot a month or months before. Practice the best hygiene that you have ever done in your life and wear a mask!
Do not touch your eyes, nose and mouth with unwashed hands. Wash hands with soap and water for at least 20 seconds and use an alcohol-based hand sanitizer.
I bring cold medicine because riding in a train full of people (some who may be sick) and you can be in that train for longer than 10 minutes and you can get sick. Personally, I use Alka Seltzer Plus. It’s not liquid and I drop it into water if I feel I’m catching a bug.
Just know that commonly used inhalers and some allergy and sinus medications such as Actifed, Sudafed and Vicks inhalers contain stimulants is illegal in other countries. So, check the medication rules for the country you are visiting.
If you are on a train and you noticed someone very sick, I would do as much as you can to move to a new location or take the next train. And yes, nothing sucks that riding a train or a subway next to a person without a mask, who sneezes and coughs and droplets are released in all directions.
If you are on a plane, read this article.
And most importantly, keep checking the CDC website for the latest information.
